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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.