🔗 Share this article

Initially, the former US president gave the impression to adopt a firm position on Ukraine. After issuing statements of "significant repercussions" during the summer if Vladimir Putin carried on hindering ceasefire discussions, Trump finally enacted considerable restrictions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously impacted the Russian leader's capability to fund his war effort in the region.

But, via his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, that was drafted by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or EU participation, the former president has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's proposal would essentially benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democracy in peril. Despite strong declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative in reality compromise that same sovereignty. Seen as a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, the former president seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, as if giving Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will satisfy the leader. But, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a charred swath of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it stops acts as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that Putin's increasing autocracy denies them.

Territorial Giveaways

While keeping in place the currently separated regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would compel Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting Russia with land that its forces have been failed to occupy in more than a decade of conflict, this concession would render Ukraine's defenses severely weakened.

This region is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that are a critical barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv if he eventually choose to restart the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a action that would enable additional conflict more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to reduce the size of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, the proposal imposes no equivalent restrictions on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray the nation's legitimate leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "All radical belief system and actions must be opposed and prohibited." As if to highlight this point, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal places no obligation that Putin risk his dictatorship by allowing elections in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the plan has the Russian Federation promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However given that Putin has broken equivalent treaties in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to honor the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of seized territory in the Donbas to the government – for what reason should we have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international defense commitments. While the proposal warns of a "strong joint military response" should Russia restart its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics vary from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent Nato members from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the security presence, reportedly led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Putin from rebuilding his reduced military, restocking, and attacking again.

International Concern

An additional side agreement reportedly would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "serious, intentional, and sustained aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a defense action. However different from a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against future invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, like Trump, to respond militarily to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not