UK Diplomats Cautioned Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents show that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.